Polish e-commerce surpasses pre-Covid growth forecasts by nearly four years

According to data from eMarketer, the global e-commerce market is expected to be worth more than USD 6 trillion this year, with over half, or USD 3.2 trillion, generated by China. The US takes second spot, with e-commerce sales nearly three times lower at USD 1.19 trillion. Statista estimates that European e-commerce will account for 8% of the global market this year and will surpass the USD 600 billion mark next year following a post-pandemic dip. The 2022 decline in e-commerce sales, largely attributed to the weaker performance of the key Western European markets - the UK, Germany and France - appears to be history and the coming years are likely to see steady growth, albeit slower than in 2020-2021.

“These three markets continue to generate 75% of the total European turnover, indicating a considerable disparity between Western Europe and the CEE markets, which account for around 12%. However, Central and Eastern Europe was the fourth-fastest growing market globally last year. According to Cushman & Wakefield, a closer look at the CEE market as a whole reveals that Poland leads the way with over half of total retail sales, followed by the Czech Republic (12%), Romania (nearly 10%), Ukraine (7%) and Hungary (6.5%),” says Damian Kołata, Partner, Head of Industrial & Logistics Agency Poland, Head of E-Commerce CEE, Cushman & Wakefield.

According to Cushman & Wakefield’s report, CEE is the fastest-growing region for e-commerce and other sectors, both historically and in terms of the outlook for the coming years. Statista data shows that compound growth rates for Central and Eastern Europe, Western Europe and the European Union indicate that CEE outperforms Western Europe1 and all the EU member states taken together by 1.4 pp and 2.7 pp respectively.

“This is hardly surprising as the CEE countries, and Poland in particular, have been performing remarkably well in terms of historical and projected cumulative GDP growth. Is therefore Poland turning into an El Dorado for e-commerce? There is no doubt that e-commerce continues to grow at pace, with Deloitte projecting a 2.5 times faster rate of growth compared with physical retail - at least until 2030. However, according to GfK, over 65,000 online stores account for only 8.5% of the market, whereas more than 40,000 stores in 600 shopping centres make up 40%. In our opinion, it is, however, extremely difficult to separate the point of initiation of a purchasing process from the place of its completion,” explains Damian Kołata.

GfK’s survey has found that 61% of respondents visited a retailer’s website after a visit to its physical store and 82% bought something online. As a result, more and more companies are implementing omnichannel solutions where all purchase, collection and return channels intersect.

“According to Eurostat and Euromonitor statistics, online retail sales in Poland have now surpassed pre-Covid growth forecasts by nearly four years. Additionally, data from Strategy& shows that the Polish e-commerce market was worth PLN 131 billion last year, marking a robust 12% increase from 2022. This market is expected to grow in 2024-2028 to reach PLN 192 billion, with some categories likely to see growth of up to 60%,” comments Damian Kołata.

According to estimates from the Polish Chamber of Commerce, based on data from Statistics Poland (GUS), e-commerce turnover reached PLN 7.1 billion in July 2024, accounting for 8.8% of total retail turnover in the enterprise sector (nearly PLN 81 billion) and representing an 8.4% increase over June and a rise of 16.7% year-on-year.

“Monthly e-commerce turnover reached four-year highs in the second and third quarters of this year, suggesting that despite a post-Covid slowdown in e-commerce growth, this market continues to expand and holds promising prospects,” adds Damian Kołata.

E-commerce expansion is set to influence the warehouse sector

What is expected to shape e-commerce in the long term? Key market drivers will include the growing consumer focus on re-commerce, or selling pre-owned items including clothes, footwear, furniture and home appliances.

“The rapid growth of the global re-commerce market, which is projected to reach USD 275 billion in 2028 according to the ‘Offer-Up Recommerce Report’, also means that warehouses will play a new role. Re-commerce facilities will have to be tailored to refurbishment tasks such as fixing minor defects, washing or odour removal. Another trend that is set to impact the warehouse sector will be cross-border e-commerce. While still in its infancy in Poland, it is already driving occupier demand for locations near national borders, particularly in the western part of Poland, stretching from Kołbaskowo to Bolesławiec. Warehouse facilities along the S3 expressway have already attracted cross-border tenants benefiting there from lower rental costs, high employee productivity and short lead times,” explains Damian Kołata.

Looking ahead, warehouse demand is expected to be increasingly driven by Chinese e-retailers seeking new markets. This represents a chance mainly for Central and Eastern Europe, which is considered as one of the most promising regions in terms of growth potential and opportunities.

“SHEIN has already leased a total of 650,000 sqm of warehouse space in the Wrocław region. Other companies - often complementary to the operations of Chinese giants and forming a shared ecosystem - are also sprouting up across the country. As their presence grows, business practices will require significant adjustments, but collaboration with Chinese tenants will certainly become an increasingly important part of Poland’s business landscape,” adds Damian Kołata.

Is it more cost-effective to organise logistics processes in Poland or open a warehouse abroad? The answer to this question is quite clear. According to data from Cushman & Wakefield, the costs of operating a 10,000 sqm warehouse in Poland employing 50 employees and consuming 480 MWh of electricity annually are 18% lower than in the Czech Republic and 50% lower than in Germany. This advantage remains despite recent minimum wage increases.

E-commerce set to reshape the urban landscape in Poland

In the long term, e-commerce is expected to impact the structure of supply chains, further diversifying the warehouse market, according to the report from Cushman & Wakefield.

“Urban infrastructure development in Poland appears to have struggled to keep pace with the rapid growth of e-commerce. Until recently, it seemed that logistics focused solely on distribution centres on the outskirts of agglomerations would be sufficient for retail. However, the pandemic made it clear that this model, while effective for brick-and-mortar retailing, was inadequate to meet the demands of e-commerce. This has led to the rise of warehouses serving as courier sorting facilities which are smaller than typical warehouses, usually having a maximum area of 5,000–8,000 sqm. The next step in optimising supply chains will be to set up microhubs. These will serve as locations where we can pick up parcels, irrespective of the courier company we choose, send returns or unpack parcels and decide whether we take them home or not. Microhubs will play a key role in the development of smart cities offering a comfortable living environment and seamlessly organised last mile logistics,” concludes Damian Kołata.